Sustainable Working Forests

The State of California Asked SIG to Model Climate Change on Certain Forestlands

Uncovering Threats and Opportunities on Nonindustrial Timberlands

CAL FIRE, California’s wildfire response agency, is required by law to produce assessments of the forests and rangelands in the state every seven years. Spatial Informatics Group was contracted to create a chapter of the 2017 assessment relating to modeling the effects of climate change on California’s 32 million acres of forest.

Modeling for Solutions to Climate Challenges

For this project, SIG gathered information on timber and forest resources, forest management, development impacts on forests, and the forest products industry. We modeled scenarios under different climate change regimes and worked to identify effective interventions available to the State of California.

A Patchwork of Management Approaches

The forest products industry in California is required to manage for long term sustainable yield, which can also include measures to reduce fire risk. But on most non-industrial forestland, which comprise 18% of the state’s forests, owners have different objectives. They may own forestlands for scenic beauty, homesites, protecting nature, maintaining cross-generational wealth, and investment. Only 11% of non-industrial forestlands in California have timber management plans, despite state initiatives to streamline the process for smaller landowners. Non-industrial forestlands tend to accumulate biomass at high rates, making them important targets for fuel load reduction treatments.

Trouble Ahead

We found that some parts of California are going to lose the capacity to support forestlands under the scenarios modeled, in particular the southern Sierra Nevada. We also identified conservation easements as a powerful tool in the state’s hands for preserving timberlands of important environmental and social value. And finally we identified invasive species as an area of special concern for their potential impacts on forestlands.

Climate Change